1. A tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment method based on state-time double variable weights is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:

1. determining the constant weight of each risk assessment index of tunnel construction safety:

step 1.1, establishing a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment index system based on tunnel construction safety accident influence factors by combining field investigation and a man-machine-environment-management system;

step 1.2, determining the constant weight of each risk assessment index by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and combining an expert scoring mode；

2. Determining the state weight of each risk assessment index of tunnel construction safety:

step 2.1, making a construction state grade judgment standard of each risk assessment index;

step 2.2, comparing the construction information obtained by monitoring measurement, field inspection and the like with the step 2.3, and determining the construction state grade of each risk assessment index;

2.3, adopting a percentage system assigning mode for the construction state grade of each risk assessment index;

step 2.4, performing multiple assigning trial calculation on the construction state of each risk assessment index, and formulating the assignment interval of the construction state of each risk assessment index;

step 2.5, determining the construction state value of each risk assessment indexRealizing the quantitative analysis of each risk evaluation index;

step 2.6, substituting the construction state value of each risk assessment index into a state variable weight formula to determine the state weight value of each index；

3. Determining the state-time weight of each risk assessment index for tunnel construction safety:

step 3.1, knowing the current construction time of the tunnelAnd the time from the beginning of construction to completion；

Step 3.2, determining time factor parameters corresponding to each risk assessment index；

Step 3.3, respectively taking=0，= ，=To obtain corresponding，，；

Step 3.4, weighting the state weightTime factor parameterSubstituting state-time double variable weight theoretical formula to obtain corresponding

，，；

Step 3.5, comparison，，The size of the three values;

step 3.6, taking=Max（，，）；

4. Determining the tunnel construction safety dynamic risk level based on the state-time weight of each risk assessment index, and obtaining a conclusion:

step 4.1, determining the risk level of each risk evaluation index according to a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;

step 4.2, drawing a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk grade chart under the state-time weight;

and 4.3, providing corresponding risk control measures according to the site construction condition.

2. The dynamic risk assessment method for tunnel construction safety based on state-time dual variable weight as claimed in claim 1, wherein:

the state weight formula is:=（0<≤1）；

wherein the content of the first and second substances,for the state weight value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator,for the constant weight value of each risk assessment indicator,is the construction state normalization value of the risk assessment index,for state weight-varying equalization coefficients

The formula of the time factor parameter is:=1-；

wherein the current construction time of the tunnel isThe time from the beginning of construction to completion is；

Weighted value of stateTime factor parameterSubstituting a state-time double variable weight theoretical formula:

=（0<less than or equal to 1), respectively obtaining the initial state-time weight value corresponding to each risk assessment index Middle term state-time weight Late state-time weight ；

Get=Max（，，）；

And (4) calculating the tunnel construction safety dynamic risk level under the condition of state-time double weight by a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

3. The dynamic risk assessment method for tunnel construction safety based on state-time dual variable weight as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: when in useWhen 1/2 is taken, the state weight changing effect is most obvious, and the state weight formula is as follows:

=。

Background

The weight of each risk assessment index in tunnel construction is an important parameter reflecting the change of the tunnel construction safety risk, and the weight of each risk assessment index shows a dynamic change characteristic in construction, so that the tunnel construction safety risk can be mastered and dynamically tracked in the whole process only by reasonably determining the dynamic weight of each assessment index.

In the prior art, the dynamic weight of each risk assessment index of the tunnel is determined by introducing a state variable weight theory on the basis of a constant weight, and the dynamic weight of each risk assessment index is only related to the construction state of the risk assessment index. And obtaining the state weight of each risk assessment index of the tunnel construction safety based on a state variable weight theory, and taking the state weight as the dynamic weight of each risk assessment index in the tunnel construction.

Research shows that the state weight only reflects the influence of the construction state on the weight of each risk assessment index, and the weight of each risk assessment index is changed along with the whole construction process. Therefore, when the dynamic weight of each risk assessment index is determined, only the construction state of each assessment index is considered, so that great blindness exists, and dynamic analysis of the tunnel construction safety risk is difficult to realize.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to overcome the inherent defects of a state variable weight theory, introduce the state-time double variable weight theory, and take the construction state and time factors of each index into consideration when determining the dynamic weight of each risk assessment index so as to realize the dynamic correction of the state weight of each risk assessment index of the tunnel construction safety.

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is realized by:

a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment method based on state-time double variable weights comprises the following steps:

1. determining the constant weight of each risk assessment index of tunnel construction safety:

step 1.1, establishing a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment index system based on tunnel construction safety accident influence factors by combining field investigation and a man-machine-environment-management system;

step 1.2, determining the constant weight of each risk assessment index by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and combining an expert scoring mode；

2. Determining the state weight of each risk assessment index of tunnel construction safety:

step 2.1, making a construction state grade judgment standard of each risk assessment index;

step 2.2, comparing the construction information obtained by monitoring measurement, field inspection and the like with the step 2.3, and determining the construction state grade of each risk assessment index;

2.3, adopting a percentage system assigning mode for the construction state grade of each risk assessment index;

step 2.4, performing multiple assigning trial calculation on the construction state of each risk assessment index, and formulating the assignment interval of the construction state of each risk assessment index;

step 2.5, determining the construction state value of each risk assessment indexRealizing the quantitative analysis of each risk evaluation index;

step 2.6, substituting the construction state value of each risk assessment index into a state variable weight formula to determine the state weight value of each index；

3. Determining the state-time weight of each risk assessment index for tunnel construction safety:

step 3.1, knowing the current construction time of the tunnelAnd the time from the beginning of construction to completion；

Step 3.2, determining time factor parameters corresponding to each risk assessment index；

Step 3.3, respectively taking=0，= ，=To obtain corresponding，，；

Step 3.4, weighting the state weightTime factor parameterSubstituting state-time double variable weight theoretical formula to obtain corresponding

，，；

Step 3.5, comparison，，The size of the three values;

step 3.6, taking=Max（，，）；

4. Determining the tunnel construction safety dynamic risk level based on the state-time weight of each risk assessment index, and obtaining a conclusion:

step 4.1, determining the risk level of each risk evaluation index according to a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;

step 4.2, drawing a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk grade chart under the state-time weight;

and 4.3, providing corresponding risk control measures according to the site construction condition.

The tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment method based on the state-time double variable weight,

the state weight formula is:= （0<≤1）；

wherein the content of the first and second substances,for the state weight value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator,for the constant weight value of each risk assessment indicator,is the construction state normalization value of the risk assessment index,for state weight-varying equalization coefficients

The formula of the time factor parameter is:=1-；

wherein the current construction time of the tunnel isThe time from the beginning of construction to completion is；

Weighted value of stateTime factor parameterSubstituting a state-time double variable weight theoretical formula:

= （0<less than or equal to 1), respectively obtaining the initial state-time weight value corresponding to each risk assessment index Middle term state-time weight Late state-time weight ；

Get=Max（，，）；

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method calculates the tunnel construction safety dynamic risk level under the condition of state-time double weight;

the tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment method based on the state-time double variable weight is implementedWhen 1/2 is taken, the state weight changing effect is most obvious, and the state weight formula is as follows:

=。

the dynamic risk assessment method for tunnel construction safety considers the construction state and time factors of each index together when determining the dynamic weight of each risk assessment index, so that the finally determined weight of each assessment index belongs to a state-time double weight, dynamic correction of the state weight of each assessment index is realized, and the tunnel construction safety state is more real and reasonable.

Drawings

Fig. 1 is a table of tunnel construction dynamic risk assessment index system.

Fig. 2 is a risk construction state grade division table for tunnel construction safety personnel.

Fig. 3 is a table for dividing the construction state grade of the tunnel construction safety machinery.

FIG. 4 is a table of the construction state grade of the tunnel construction safety environment risk.

FIG. 5 is a table of the construction state grade division of the tunnel construction safety environment risk.

FIG. 6 is a description table of tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment index construction states assigned to regions.

Detailed Description

The invention is further illustrated by the following specific examples.

As shown in fig. 1 to 6, the method for evaluating dynamic risk of tunnel construction safety based on the state-time dual-weight-variation theory includes:

determining the constant weight of each risk assessment index of tunnel construction safety:

step 1, establishing a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment index system based on tunnel construction safety accident influence factors (collapse, water burst, mud burst, high-altitude falling and the like) by combining field investigation and a man-machine-environment-management system;

step 2, determining the constant weight of each risk assessment index by adopting an analytic hierarchy process and combining an expert scoring mode；

Determining the state weight of each risk assessment index of tunnel construction safety:

step 1, reading relevant documents and consulting experts, and making a construction state grade judgment standard of each risk assessment index;

step 2, comparing the construction information obtained by monitoring measurement, field inspection and the like with the step 3, and determining the construction state grade of each risk assessment index;

step 3, adopting a percentage system assigning mode for the construction state grade of each risk assessment index;

step 4, referring to technical specifications of highway tunnel construction and combining expert opinions, performing multiple assigning trial calculation on the construction state of each risk assessment index, and formulating the construction state assigning intervals of each risk assessment index;

step 5, determining the construction state value of each risk assessment indexRealizing the quantitative analysis of each risk evaluation index;

step 6, substituting the construction state values of the risk assessment indexes into a state weight changing formula to determine the state weight values of the indexes；

Determining the state-time weight of each risk assessment index for the tunnel construction safety:

step 1, knowing the current construction time of the tunnelAnd the time from the beginning of construction to completion；

Step 2, determining time factor parameters corresponding to each risk assessment index；

Step 3, respectively taking=0，= ，=To obtain corresponding，，；

Step 4, weighting the state weight valueTime factor parameterSubstituting state-time double variable weight theoretical formula to obtain corresponding

，，；

Step 5, comparison，，The size of the three values;

step 6, taking=Max（，，）；

Determining the tunnel construction safety dynamic risk level based on the state-time weight of each risk assessment index, and obtaining a conclusion:

step 1, determining the risk level of each risk evaluation index according to a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;

step 2, drawing a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk grade chart under the state-time weight;

and 3, providing corresponding risk control measures according to the site construction condition.

In the above evaluation method, the method further comprises the steps of:

step 1, determining a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment index system in table 1 by combining the characteristics of a man-machine-environment-management system and tunnel new Austrian monitoring measurement on the basis of reading related documents at home and abroad;

step 2, referring to relevant documents and combining tunnel monitoring measurement specifications and relevant expert opinions, carrying out quantitative analysis on the construction state of each risk assessment index, and establishing the grade evaluation standard of each risk assessment index construction state in tables 2-5;

step 3, comparing the dynamic information reflecting the construction state of the risk assessment indexes in real time by means of on-site routing inspection, monitoring measurement and the like with tables 2 to 5 to determine the construction state grade of each risk assessment index;

step 4, referring to 'design specifications of road tunnels', combining field investigation conditions and expert suggestions, adopting a percentage system assigning mode for each risk assessment index construction state, and establishing assigning intervals of each risk assessment index construction state by adopting multiple different assigning trial calculations for each risk assessment index construction state;

step 5, only taking four risk assessment indexes of A13, A25, A34 and A44 as examples, explaining the state interval scoring standard, and establishing construction state assigned value description of tunnel construction safety dynamic risk assessment indexes in the table 6;

step 6, determining the construction state normalization value of each risk assessment index in each assigned region of the construction state of each risk assessment index based on tables 2-5;

and 7, substituting a state weight formula:= （0<less than or equal to 1), and obtaining construction state weights corresponding to the risk assessment indexes;

whereinFor the state weight value corresponding to each risk assessment indicator,for the constant weight value of each risk assessment indicator,is the construction state normalization value of the risk assessment index,is a state weight-varying equalization coefficient whenWhen 1/2 is taken, the state weight changing effect is most obvious, and the state weight formula is as follows:

=

step 8, knowing the constructed time of the current tunnelAnd the time from the beginning of construction to completion；

Step 9, determining time factor parameters corresponding to each risk assessment index=1-；

Step 10, respectively taking=0，= ，=To obtain corresponding，，；

Step 11, weighting the state weightTime factor parameterSubstituting a state-time double variable weight theoretical formula:

= （0<less than or equal to 1), respectively obtaining the initial state-time weight value corresponding to each risk assessment index Middle term state-time weight Late state-time weight ；

Step 12, taking=Max（，，）

Step 13, calculating the tunnel construction safety dynamic risk level under the condition of state-time double weight according to a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;

step 14, drawing a tunnel construction safety dynamic risk level graph;

step 15, making corresponding risk control measures according to the dynamic risk grade state of the tunnel construction safety in combination with the field construction condition;

note: the weight of the tunnel construction safety risk assessment index is continuously changed along with the construction state and the construction process, so that the overall construction safety state of the tunnel is also continuously changed. In order to reflect the dynamic change characteristics of the weight of each risk assessment finger, monitoring measurement and field inspection should be followed up every day.

Because the construction state of the tunnel construction safety risk assessment indexes is different every day, the influence of the construction state on the weight is only considered, and the risk assessment indexes are monitored every day. In order to facilitate the development of risk assessment work, the risk assessment indexes are monitored every day for 10 days continuously, and the change condition of the construction-time weight of each risk assessment index within 10 days is counted.

In the state-time double variable weight theoretical formula Value followsI.e., the probability of a construction safety accident occurring in the tunnel increases. Therefore, the whole construction process is divided into、、3 stages, respectively determining the risk assessment indexes in the 3 stages And taking the maximum as the final state-time weight value of each risk assessment index.