1. The safety diagnosis and evaluation method based on accident guidance is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:

establishing a typical accident basic event set library: collecting typical accident cases of natural gas enterprises which occur all the year round, analyzing the various accident cases by adopting a fault tree analysis method, determining various basic events which can trigger various events to occur, and forming various types of accident basic event collection libraries through classification and integration;

determining a safety diagnosis evaluation index: taking inherent risks, unsafe states of objects, unsafe behaviors of people and emergency defects as first-level indexes; classifying and summarizing the basic events into intermediate events as secondary indexes; taking the basic event as a safety diagnosis evaluation point;

and (3) calculating index weight: carrying out priority ordering and scoring on the diagnosis evaluation indexes by adopting an expert scoring method, comparing every two indexes to obtain a judgment matrix, transversely summing the scores of each index to obtain an index TTL value, carrying out percentage calculation according to the TTL value and determining the index weight;

determining a safety diagnosis evaluation index system: the safety diagnosis evaluation index system consists of a primary index, a secondary index, a weight score and safety diagnosis evaluation key points;

establishing a safety diagnosis evaluation list: the safety diagnosis evaluation list is composed of a safety diagnosis evaluation index system, diagnosis evaluation contents, a grading criterion and management reason analysis;

establishing a diagnosis evaluation result division standard: establishing a diagnosis evaluation result division standard according to a quantitative audit standard grade division principle of an HSE management system;

and (3) carrying out safety diagnosis and evaluation on the production site: applying a safety diagnosis evaluation list to carry out diagnosis implementation, recording diagnosis found problems, grading the diagnosis results according to diagnosis evaluation result division standards, determining management reasons or management defects according to the diagnosis found problems, formulating and implementing targeted management improvement measures, judging the diagnosis evaluation results to be qualified, finishing a diagnosis evaluation program, judging the diagnosis evaluation results to be unqualified, and carrying out a double diagnosis after the safety problems are rectified and improved;

and (3) return diagnosis: and (5) aiming at the unqualified diagnosis evaluation result, carrying out the repeated diagnosis again by using the safety diagnosis evaluation list, and giving the repeated diagnosis result.

2. The accident guidance-based safety diagnostic assessment method according to claim 1, wherein: typical accident case types are divided into fire, explosion, toxic suffocation and object strikes.

3. The accident guidance-based safety diagnostic assessment method according to claim 1, wherein: each first-level index score is the total score multiplied by the first-level index weight, and each second-level index score is the corresponding first-level index score multiplied by the second-level index weight.

4. The accident guidance-based safety diagnostic assessment method according to claim 1, wherein: the diagnosis and evaluation content is refined and defined according to the diagnosis and evaluation key points; the scoring criterion sets a scoring item according to the diagnosis evaluation content and the secondary index weight score; the management reason adopts a PDCA-OPPT analysis method to analyze relevant contents from the aspects of responsibility, system, training, resources, inspection and assessment.

Background

In recent years, along with the increasing strict requirements of governments and society on safety production, the requirement for accurate analysis of HSE problems is higher and higher, and research and exploration of problem diagnosis and evaluation have gradually started in different industries, such as: the national emergency administration has issued "grading guidelines (trial) for safety risk assessment and diagnosis of hazardous chemical production and storage enterprises" in 2018, and the working requirements of safety diagnosis and assessment are increased on a national level; since 2015, the medium petroleum group company adopts technical diagnosis and management evaluation for many times to check the tendency problems of key risk enterprises, and plays a certain role in improving HSE management quality of key risk enterprises.

At present, the petroleum industry still adopts the traditional checklist mode to carry out safety diagnosis work, adopts the working mode of emphasizing on-site observation and data lookup, has the defects of low efficiency, high dependence on checklist quality and implementation personnel experience and the like, does not form a diagnosis and evaluation method suitable for the petroleum and natural gas high-risk industry, adopts the HSE system auditing mode to carry out safety diagnosis and evaluation, has no diagnosis direction aiming at the symptom event or behavior causing the accident, and has low pertinence.

The safety problems existing in the petroleum and natural gas production field are mainly checked by means of supervision, inspection, system audit and the like at present, in the actual implementation process, the working effect depends on the experience and responsibility consciousness of personnel to a great extent, and in addition, factors of time, tools, authority and the like cause that the root causes of some serious trends or risk problems are difficult to be accurately, systematically and timely checked out; meanwhile, due to the technical defects of traditional supervision, inspection and system audit, the reasons for finding problems are unclear, and the safety problems always exist in the frequent and repeated inspection, so that hidden dangers of the oil and gas production field are generated, the safety risk is continuous, and the safety situation is severe; in order to find the accident head in time, find the symptom event which may cause the accident, and improve the management to effectively restrain the accident, therefore, a safety diagnosis and evaluation method based on accident guidance is required to be established.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to: the safety diagnosis and evaluation method based on accident guidance is provided, the problem of finding the symptom event possibly causing the accident is solved, the blank of the safety diagnosis and evaluation technology in the petroleum and gas industry is filled, managers can be helped to accurately check the field safety problem, the management reason is accurately positioned, targeted improvement measures are provided, the problem of the root cause of field safety problem management is solved, and the continuous improvement and capacity improvement of enterprise safety management are effectively promoted.

The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:

the safety diagnosis and evaluation method based on accident guidance comprises the following steps:

establishing a typical accident basic event set library: collecting typical accident cases of natural gas enterprises which occur all the year round, analyzing the various accident cases by adopting a fault tree analysis method, determining various basic events which can trigger various events to occur, and forming various types of accident basic event collection libraries through classification and integration;

determining a safety diagnosis evaluation index: taking inherent risks, unsafe states of objects, unsafe behaviors of people and emergency defects as first-level indexes; classifying and summarizing the basic events into intermediate events as secondary indexes; taking the basic event as a safety diagnosis evaluation point;

and (3) calculating index weight: carrying out priority ordering and scoring on the diagnosis evaluation indexes by adopting an expert scoring method, comparing every two indexes to obtain a judgment matrix, transversely summing the scores of each index to obtain an index TTL value, carrying out percentage calculation according to the TTL value and determining the index weight;

determining a safety diagnosis evaluation index system: the safety diagnosis evaluation index system consists of a primary index, a secondary index, a weight score and safety diagnosis evaluation key points;

establishing a safety diagnosis evaluation list: the safety diagnosis evaluation list is composed of a safety diagnosis evaluation index system, diagnosis evaluation contents, a grading criterion and management reason analysis;

establishing a diagnosis evaluation result division standard: establishing a diagnosis evaluation result division standard according to a quantitative audit standard grade division principle of an HSE management system;

and (3) carrying out safety diagnosis and evaluation on the production site: applying a safety diagnosis evaluation list to carry out diagnosis implementation, recording diagnosis found problems, grading the diagnosis results according to diagnosis evaluation result division standards, determining management reasons or management defects according to the diagnosis found problems, formulating and implementing targeted management improvement measures, judging the diagnosis evaluation results to be qualified, finishing a diagnosis evaluation program, judging the diagnosis evaluation results to be unqualified, and carrying out a double diagnosis after the safety problems are rectified and improved;

and (3) return diagnosis: and (5) aiming at the unqualified diagnosis evaluation result, carrying out the repeated diagnosis again by using the safety diagnosis evaluation list, and giving the repeated diagnosis result.

Further, the types of typical accident cases are divided into fire, explosion, toxic asphyxiation and object strike.

Further, each first-level index score is the total score multiplied by the first-level index weight, and each second-level index score is the corresponding first-level index score multiplied by the second-level index weight.

Further, the diagnosis and evaluation content is refined and defined according to the diagnosis and evaluation points; the scoring criterion sets a scoring item according to the diagnosis evaluation content and the secondary index weight score; the management reason adopts a PDCA-OPPT analysis method to analyze relevant contents from the aspects of responsibility, system, training, resources, inspection and assessment.

In summary, due to the adoption of the technical scheme, the invention has the beneficial effects that:

the invention relates to a safety diagnosis and evaluation method based on accident guidance, which establishes a diagnosis and evaluation method suitable for safety problems in the petroleum and gas industry, fills the blank of the safety diagnosis and evaluation technology in the petroleum and gas industry, is more pertinently focused on sign events or behaviors causing accidents, can help managers to more accurately check the field safety problems, accurately position management reasons, provides pertinence improvement measures, prevents and interrupts accident chains in advance, effectively prevents accidents, and solves the root cause problem of field safety problem management.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope, and that for those skilled in the art, other relevant drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without inventive effort, wherein:

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the present invention.

Detailed Description

In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the preferred embodiment of the invention, are intended for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. The components of embodiments of the present invention generally described and illustrated in the figures herein may be arranged and designed in a wide variety of different configurations.

Thus, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention, presented in the figures, is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, as claimed, but is merely representative of selected embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments of the present invention without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

It is noted that relational terms such as "first" and "second," and the like, may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.

Examples

As shown in fig. 1, the safety diagnosis and evaluation method based on accident guidance according to the preferred embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:

establishing a typical accident basic event set library: collecting typical accident cases of natural gas enterprises which occur all the year round, analyzing the various accident cases by adopting a fault tree analysis method, determining various basic events which can trigger various events to occur, and forming various types of accident basic event collection libraries through classification and integration;

in particular, the types of typical accident cases are divided into fire, explosion, toxic suffocation and object strike.

Determining a safety diagnosis evaluation index: taking inherent risks, unsafe states of objects, unsafe behaviors of people and emergency defects as first-level indexes; classifying and summarizing the basic events into intermediate events as secondary indexes; taking the basic event as a safety diagnosis evaluation point;

in the implementation, the modern accident cause theory is taken as the basis, the focus of the national attention on the safety risk assessment and diagnosis of dangerous chemical production and storage enterprises is fused, and the inherent risk, the unsafe state of objects, the unsafe behaviors of people and the emergency defects are definitely taken as primary indexes. The basic event set library analyzed by the fault tree can provide directional guidance for safety diagnosis and evaluation, and intermediate events are the classification generalization of the basic events and can be determined as secondary indexes through classification integration; the basic event can be used as the safety diagnosis evaluation point.

And (3) calculating index weight: carrying out priority ordering and scoring on the diagnosis evaluation indexes by adopting an expert scoring method, comparing every two indexes to obtain a judgment matrix, transversely summing the scores of each index to obtain an index TTL value, carrying out percentage calculation according to the TTL value and determining the index weight;

in the implementation process, an expert scoring method is adopted to carry out priority ranking and scoring on the diagnosis evaluation indexes, if n indexes exist, the scoring grades are 1, 2 and 3.

And obtaining a judgment matrix by comparing the indexes pairwise. If the index Xi is more important than the index Xj, the Aij is divided into 1; if the importance is equal, Aij is divided into 0.5; if the index Xj is more important than the index Xi, Aij is given a score of 0.

	X1	X2	…	Xn
					X1	A11	A12	…	A1n
X2	A21	A22	…	A2n
					…	…	…	…	…
Xn	An1	An2	…	Ann

And transversely summing the scores of each index to obtain an index TTL value.

And performing percentage calculation according to the TTL value to determine the index weight.

Determining a safety diagnosis evaluation index system: the safety diagnosis evaluation index system consists of a primary index, a secondary index, a weight score and safety diagnosis evaluation key points;

preferably, each first-level index score is the total score multiplied by the first-level index weight, and each second-level index score is the corresponding first-level index score multiplied by the second-level index weight.

In the implementation, the total score of the primary index is set to 100 points.

Establishing a safety diagnosis evaluation list: the safety diagnosis evaluation list is composed of a safety diagnosis evaluation index system, diagnosis evaluation contents, a grading criterion and management reason analysis;

specifically, the diagnosis and evaluation content is refined and defined according to the diagnosis and evaluation points; the scoring criterion sets a scoring item according to the diagnosis evaluation content and the secondary index weight score; the management reason adopts a PDCA-OPPT analysis method to analyze relevant contents from the aspects of responsibility, system, training, resources, inspection and assessment.

Establishing a diagnosis evaluation result division standard: establishing a diagnosis evaluation result division standard according to a quantitative audit standard grade division principle of an HSE management system;

in the implementation, the diagnosis and evaluation result is divided into four grades, namely A grade, B grade, C grade and D grade. The score of 90 is A grade, the score of 80-90 is B grade, the score of 60-80 is C grade, and the score of 60 is D grade.

And (3) carrying out safety diagnosis and evaluation on the production site: applying a safety diagnosis evaluation list to carry out diagnosis implementation, recording diagnosis found problems, grading the diagnosis results according to diagnosis evaluation result division standards, determining management reasons or management defects according to the diagnosis found problems, formulating and implementing targeted management improvement measures, judging the diagnosis evaluation results to be qualified, finishing a diagnosis evaluation program, judging the diagnosis evaluation results to be unqualified, and carrying out a double diagnosis after the safety problems are rectified and improved;

when the diagnosis result reaches the B level or above, the diagnosis evaluation result is judged to be qualified, and the diagnosis evaluation program is ended. And when the initial diagnosis result reaches the grade B or below, judging that the diagnosis evaluation result is unqualified, and carrying out a re-diagnosis after the safety problem is rectified.

And (3) return diagnosis: and (5) aiming at the unqualified diagnosis evaluation result, carrying out the repeated diagnosis again by using the safety diagnosis evaluation list, and giving the repeated diagnosis result.

The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and should not be taken as limiting the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents and improvements made by those skilled in the art within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.