1. A photovoltaic power station investment and financing decision method based on power generation amount prediction is characterized by comprising the following steps:

acquiring position information of a photovoltaic power station, and acquiring future climate information of a preset time period according to the position information;

predicting the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to future climate information;

and judging whether to invest and finance the photovoltaic power station according to the prediction result.

2. The power generation prediction-based photovoltaic power plant investment and financing decision method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the future climate information includes climate type, average air temperature per quarter, wind direction and speed, precipitation, thunderstorm, rain and snow weather, and cloud cover information.

3. The power generation amount prediction-based photovoltaic power plant investment and financing decision method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the prediction of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power plant in the preset time period according to the future climate information comprises:

screening out time intervals when the future climate information accords with the sunny characteristics, and determining the sunny time in a preset time interval according to a screening result;

acquiring daily radiant quantity of a photovoltaic panel in a photovoltaic power station, and acquiring total radiant quantity in a preset time period by combining sunny time;

the method comprises the steps of obtaining the area of a photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of a photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, calculating the product of the total radiant quantity, the area of the photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, and obtaining the predicted power generation quantity of the photovoltaic power station.

4. The power generation amount prediction-based photovoltaic power plant investment and financing decision method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the judgment of whether to invest and finance the photovoltaic power plant according to the prediction result comprises:

inputting a prediction result into a preset decision model, wherein the decision model is a linear regression model;

and when the output result of the decision model exceeds a preset threshold value, investment and financing are carried out on the photovoltaic power station.

5. A photovoltaic power station investment and financing decision device based on power generation capacity prediction is characterized by comprising:

an acquisition unit: the system comprises a weather information acquisition module, a weather information acquisition module and a weather information acquisition module, wherein the weather information acquisition module is used for acquiring position information of a photovoltaic power station and acquiring future climate information of a preset time period according to the position information;

a prediction unit: the method is used for predicting the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to future climate information;

a judging unit: and judging whether to invest and finance the photovoltaic power station according to the prediction result.

6. The power generation amount prediction-based photovoltaic power plant investment and financing decision device as claimed in claim 5, wherein the obtaining unit is used for obtaining climate type, average air temperature, wind direction and wind speed, precipitation, thunderstorm, rain and snow weather and cloud amount and cloud shape information of each season.

7. The device for photovoltaic power plant investment and financing decision based on power generation capacity prediction as claimed in claim 5, wherein the prediction unit is specifically configured to:

screening out time intervals when the future climate information accords with the sunny characteristics, and determining the sunny time in a preset time interval according to a screening result;

acquiring daily radiant quantity of a photovoltaic panel in a photovoltaic power station, and acquiring total radiant quantity in a preset time period by combining sunny time;

the method comprises the steps of obtaining the area of a photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of a photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, calculating the product of the total radiant quantity, the area of the photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, and obtaining the predicted power generation quantity of the photovoltaic power station.

8. The device for decision-making of investment and financing of photovoltaic power plant based on power generation capacity prediction as claimed in claim 5, wherein the judgment unit is specifically configured to:

inputting a prediction result into a preset decision model, wherein the decision model is a linear regression model;

and when the output result of the decision model exceeds a preset threshold value, investment and financing are carried out on the photovoltaic power station.

Background

The photovoltaic power station is a power generation system which utilizes solar energy and is composed of electronic elements such as a crystalline silicon plate, an inverter and the like and is connected with a power grid and transmits power to the power grid. However, in the prior art, when investment and financing behaviors are decided, the investment and financing behaviors are often substituted into the state of the whole year only through field investigation and according to the current indexes, and the photovoltaic power generation has strong dependence on a real-time environment, and the current indexes are not necessarily suitable for considering the operation effect of a future photovoltaic power station, so that the traditional method has strong sidedness, and the probability of loss generated after investment and financing are completed is high.

Disclosure of Invention

In order to solve the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a photovoltaic power station investment and financing decision method based on power generation amount prediction, which comprises the following steps:

acquiring position information of a photovoltaic power station, and acquiring future climate information of a preset time period according to the position information;

predicting the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to future climate information;

and judging whether to invest and finance the photovoltaic power station according to the prediction result.

Optionally, the future climate information includes climate type, average air temperature per season, wind direction and wind speed, precipitation, thunderstorm, rainy and snowy weather, and cloud cover information.

Optionally, the predicting the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to the future climate information includes:

screening out time intervals when the future climate information accords with the sunny characteristics, and determining the sunny time in a preset time interval according to a screening result;

acquiring daily radiant quantity of a photovoltaic panel in a photovoltaic power station, and acquiring total radiant quantity in a preset time period by combining sunny time;

the method comprises the steps of obtaining the area of a photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of a photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, calculating the product of the total radiant quantity, the area of the photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, and obtaining the predicted power generation quantity of the photovoltaic power station.

Optionally, the determining whether to invest and fund the photovoltaic power station according to the prediction result includes:

inputting a prediction result into a preset decision model, wherein the decision model is a linear regression model;

and when the output result of the decision model exceeds a preset threshold value, investment and financing are carried out on the photovoltaic power station.

The invention also provides a photovoltaic power station investment and financing decision device based on power generation amount prediction based on the same idea, which comprises the following components:

an acquisition unit: the system comprises a weather information acquisition module, a weather information acquisition module and a weather information acquisition module, wherein the weather information acquisition module is used for acquiring position information of a photovoltaic power station and acquiring future climate information of a preset time period according to the position information;

a prediction unit: the method is used for predicting the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to future climate information;

a judging unit: and judging whether to invest and finance the photovoltaic power station according to the prediction result.

Optionally, the obtaining unit is configured to obtain a climate type, an average air temperature of each season, a wind direction and a wind speed, precipitation, a thunderstorm, a rainy or snowy weather, and cloud amount and cloud shape information.

Optionally, the prediction unit is specifically configured to:

screening out time intervals when the future climate information accords with the sunny characteristics, and determining the sunny time in a preset time interval according to a screening result;

acquiring daily radiant quantity of a photovoltaic panel in a photovoltaic power station, and acquiring total radiant quantity in a preset time period by combining sunny time;

the method comprises the steps of obtaining the area of a photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of a photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, calculating the product of the total radiant quantity, the area of the photovoltaic panel, the conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic module and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, and obtaining the predicted power generation quantity of the photovoltaic power station.

Optionally, the determining unit is specifically configured to:

inputting a prediction result into a preset decision model, wherein the decision model is a linear regression model;

and when the output result of the decision model exceeds a preset threshold value, investment and financing are carried out on the photovoltaic power station.

The technical scheme provided by the invention has the beneficial effects that:

the method combines climate prediction, predicts the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the predicted future climate information, fully considers the influence of climate factors on the power generation amount, can perform investment and financing auxiliary decision according to the prediction result of the power generation amount, improves the accuracy of the power generation amount index, and reduces the generation of investment loss.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on the drawings without creative efforts.

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a decision-making method for investment and financing of a photovoltaic power station based on power generation prediction according to the present invention;

fig. 2 is a block diagram of a photovoltaic power plant investment and financing decision device based on power generation amount prediction according to the present invention.

Detailed Description

To make the structure and advantages of the present invention clearer, the structure of the present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings.

In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those specifically described herein, and it will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art that the present invention may be practiced without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, and therefore the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

Example one

As shown in fig. 1, the present embodiment provides a method for deciding investment and financing of a photovoltaic power plant based on power generation amount prediction, including:

s1: acquiring position information of a photovoltaic power station, and acquiring future climate information of a preset time period according to the position information;

s2: predicting the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to future climate information;

s3: and judging whether to invest and finance the photovoltaic power station according to the prediction result.

The embodiment combines climate prediction, predicts the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the predicted future climate information, fully considers the influence of climate factors on the power generation amount, can perform investment and financing auxiliary decision according to the prediction result of the power generation amount, improves the accuracy of the index of the power generation amount, and reduces the generation of investment loss.

The future climate information includes climate type, average air temperature per season, wind direction and speed, precipitation, thunderstorm, rain and snow weather, and cloud cover information. In this embodiment, the future climate information may be estimated according to historical climate information, where the historical climate information is climate information of the location where the photovoltaic power station is located in the last 20 years, and the climate prediction is performed on the last 10 years of the location where the photovoltaic power station is located according to the climate information of the last 20 years, that is, the preset time period is 10 years in the future in this embodiment. The climate prediction is to infer a possible trend of climate development in a certain period of time in the future according to an evolution rule of a past climate, and usually, the climate information is input into a preset climate prediction model.

In this embodiment, the predicting the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to the future climate information includes:

screening out time intervals when the future climate information accords with the clear day characteristics, and determining clear day time in a preset time interval according to a screening result, for example, in the embodiment, the future climate information is obtained by taking a day as a unit, an average air temperature threshold value, a wind direction and speed threshold value, a precipitation threshold value and a thunderstorm threshold value are respectively set, and a clear day characteristic matrix is formed by combining rain and snow weather and cloud amount and cloud state information; forming feature matrixes to be classified by future climate information, calculating the distance between each feature matrix to be classified and a clear day feature matrix, and dividing a day with the distance smaller than a preset distance threshold value into clear day time periods, wherein the clear day time is the number of days of the clear day time periods;

acquiring the daily radiant quantity of a photovoltaic panel in the photovoltaic power station, and acquiring the total radiant quantity in a preset time period by combining the time of a sunny day, wherein in the embodiment, the product of the daily radiant quantity of the photovoltaic panel and the time of the sunny day is used as the total radiant quantity in the preset time period;

the method comprises the steps of obtaining the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic panel area, the photovoltaic module conversion efficiency and the photovoltaic power station, calculating the product of the total radiant quantity, the photovoltaic panel area, the photovoltaic module conversion efficiency and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, and obtaining the predicted power generation quantity of the photovoltaic power station, wherein the predicted power generation quantity L of the photovoltaic power station in the embodiment is as follows:

L＝Q×S×η₁×η；

wherein Q is the total radiant quantity of the photovoltaic panel, S is the area of the photovoltaic panel, eta₁For photovoltaic module conversion efficiency, η is the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power plant, Q, S, η₁And η are positive numbers.

The generated energy prediction value of the photovoltaic power station is obtained through climate prediction, so that the subsequent investment and financing decision is facilitated by taking the generated energy as a reference index, and the accuracy of the investment and financing evaluation result is favorably improved.

In this embodiment, the prediction result is input into a predicted decision model, where the decision model is a linear regression model, and specifically includes:

y＝α₁L+α₂x₂+…+α_nx_n；

wherein x is₂,…x_nAll factors except the generating capacity influence the investment and financing income, alpha₁、α₂、…α_nAre all preset weights, α₁、α₂、…α_nThe value range of (a) is real number.

When the result output by the decision model exceeds a preset threshold value, investment and financing are carried out on the photovoltaic power station, namely when y exceeds the preset threshold value, the photovoltaic power station to be invested and financed has investment value and good investment income prospect, so that the function of assisting the investment and financing of the photovoltaic power station is achieved, and the problem of investment loss is reduced.

Example two

As shown in fig. 2, the present embodiment provides a photovoltaic power plant investment and financing decision device 4 based on power generation amount prediction, which includes:

the acquisition unit 41: the system comprises a weather information acquisition module, a weather information acquisition module and a weather information acquisition module, wherein the weather information acquisition module is used for acquiring position information of a photovoltaic power station and acquiring future climate information of a preset time period according to the position information;

the prediction unit 42: the method is used for predicting the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station in a preset time period according to future climate information;

the judgment unit 43: and judging whether to invest and finance the photovoltaic power station according to the prediction result.

The embodiment combines climate prediction, predicts the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the predicted future climate information, fully considers the influence of climate factors on the power generation amount, can perform investment and financing auxiliary decision according to the prediction result of the power generation amount, improves the accuracy of the index of the power generation amount, and reduces the generation of investment loss.

The obtaining unit 41 is used for obtaining the climate type, the average air temperature of each season, the wind direction and the wind speed, precipitation, thunderstorm, rain and snow weather and cloud cover information. In this embodiment, the future climate information may be estimated according to historical climate information, where the historical climate information is climate information of the location where the photovoltaic power station is located in the last 20 years, and the climate prediction is performed on the last 10 years of the location where the photovoltaic power station is located according to the climate information of the last 20 years, that is, the preset time period is 10 years in the future in this embodiment. The climate prediction is to infer a possible trend of climate development in a certain period of time in the future according to an evolution rule of a past climate, and usually, the climate information is input into a preset climate prediction model.

In this embodiment, the prediction unit 42 is specifically configured to:

screening out time intervals when the future climate information accords with the clear day characteristics, and determining clear day time in a preset time interval according to a screening result, for example, in the embodiment, the future climate information is obtained by taking a day as a unit, an average air temperature threshold value, a wind direction and speed threshold value, a precipitation threshold value and a thunderstorm threshold value are respectively set, and a clear day characteristic matrix is formed by combining rain and snow weather and cloud amount and cloud state information; forming feature matrixes to be classified by future climate information, calculating the distance between each feature matrix to be classified and a clear day feature matrix, and dividing a day with the distance smaller than a preset distance threshold value into clear day time periods, wherein the clear day time is the number of days of the clear day time periods;

acquiring the daily radiant quantity of a photovoltaic panel in the photovoltaic power station, and acquiring the total radiant quantity in a preset time period by combining the time of a sunny day, wherein in the embodiment, the product of the daily radiant quantity of the photovoltaic panel and the time of the sunny day is used as the total radiant quantity in the preset time period;

the method comprises the steps of obtaining the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic panel area, the photovoltaic module conversion efficiency and the photovoltaic power station, calculating the product of the total radiant quantity, the photovoltaic panel area, the photovoltaic module conversion efficiency and the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power station, and obtaining the predicted power generation quantity of the photovoltaic power station, wherein the predicted power generation quantity L of the photovoltaic power station in the embodiment is as follows:

L＝Q×S×η₁×η；

wherein Q is the total radiant quantity of the photovoltaic panel, S is the area of the photovoltaic panel, eta₁For photovoltaic module conversion efficiency, η is the total system efficiency of the photovoltaic power plant, Q, S, η₁And η are positive numbers.

The generated energy prediction value of the photovoltaic power station is obtained through climate prediction, so that the subsequent investment and financing decision is facilitated by taking the generated energy as a reference index, and the accuracy of the investment and financing evaluation result is favorably improved.

In this embodiment, the determining unit 43 is specifically configured to:

inputting the prediction result into a prediction decision model, wherein the decision model is a linear regression model and specifically comprises the following steps:

y＝α₁L+α₂x₂+…+α_nx_n；

wherein, x₂,…x_nAll factors except the generating capacity influence the investment and financing income, alpha₁、α₂、…α_nAre all preset weights, α₁、α₂、…α_nThe value range of (a) is real number.

When the result output by the decision model exceeds a preset threshold value, investment and financing are carried out on the photovoltaic power station, namely when y exceeds the preset threshold value, the photovoltaic power station to be invested and financed has investment value and good investment income prospect, so that the function of assisting the investment and financing of the photovoltaic power station is achieved, and the problem of investment loss is reduced.

The sequence numbers in the above embodiments are merely for description, and do not represent the sequence of the assembly or the use of the components.

The above description is only exemplary of the present invention and should not be taken as limiting the invention, as any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.