1. A construction method of a litchi major and minor region forecasting model based on meteorological conditions is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following operation steps:

the method comprises the following steps: preparing the data of the year and year of the litchi;

step two: preparing meteorological data;

step three: constructing a region forecast conceptual model;

step four: and (5) analyzing the regional forecast analysis model.

2. The method for constructing the litchi major and minor regional forecasting model based on the meteorological conditions as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the litchi yield year-year data in the step one are obtained by monitoring by a model user or obtained from related departments of the country, the data are monitoring data of litchi gardens with the area of more than 1000 mu for more than 10 continuous years in the same area, 5 grades of big year, flat year, small year and small year are determined through investigation and data analysis of the related departments, and values of 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 are respectively assigned.

3. The method for constructing the litchi major and minor regional forecasting model based on the meteorological conditions as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: and the meteorological data in the second step uses daily meteorological data freely published in a near national meteorological station, and the meteorological data indexes comprise the lowest temperature and the average humidity.

4. The method for constructing the litchi major and minor regional forecasting model based on the meteorological conditions as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the area forecast conceptual model in the step three is P_i＝f(X₁；X₂) (ii) a Wherein: x₁、X₂Respectively, the monthly minimum temperature and the monthly average humidity.

5. The method for constructing the litchi major and minor regional forecasting model based on the meteorological conditions as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the area forecast analysis model in the fourth step is P_i＝a₀+a₁*X₁+a₂*X₂Wherein a is₀～a₂Model parameters obtained for statistical methods.

Background

Litchi is sapindaceae, genus litchi, evergreen arbor, and is about 10 m high. The pericarp has stigmatic protuberance, bright red and purplish red. The color turns to bright red when the rice is ripe; the seeds are all wrapped by fleshy aril. The spring in the flowering period and the summer in the fruit period. When fresh, the pulp is translucent and greasy, and fragrant, but not storable. Litchi is a very obvious subtropical fruit in both the young and the old, and the yield reduction of litchi in the young is more than 80 percent compared with that in the old. The main reasons for the growth of the old and the young are that the weather conditions limit the flower blossoming and fruit setting and the insufficient supply of soil nutrients. However, the diagnosis or forecast method of the year and year type of litchi does not realize quantification, and the root cause of year and year generation is not found directly, so that any regulation in production only can be realized by a kernel-producing person who produces intelligence, and although the effect can be obtained by more or less people, the result is far from ideal. At present, research results aiming at the cause of the litchi year and year are not clear, a method capable of regulating and controlling the litchi year to a certain extent is also generated in production, but a general technology or a technical system cannot be formed.

The invention aims to establish a meteorological condition-based litchi major and minor annual region forecasting model, and aims to determine meteorological conditions under which most plots of regional litchi are perennial under the condition of perennial, and on the contrary, most plots are perennial under the condition of minor years, so that the meteorological conditions are used as bases for field microclimate condition regulation and control.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a construction method of a litchi major and minor region forecasting model based on meteorological conditions, so as to solve the problems in the background technology.

In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:

a construction method of a litchi major and minor region forecasting model based on meteorological conditions comprises the following operation steps:

the method comprises the following steps: preparing the data of the year and year of the litchi;

step two: preparing meteorological data;

step three: constructing a region forecast conceptual model;

step four: and (5) analyzing the regional forecast analysis model.

As a further scheme of the invention: the litchi yield year-year data in the step one are obtained by monitoring by a model user or obtained from related national departments, and the data are monitoring data of more than 1000 mu litchi orchard in the same area for more than 10 continuous years. The major, minor, average, minor and minor years were rated 5, and assigned numerical values of 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1, respectively, as determined by relevant department surveys and data analysis.

As a still further scheme of the invention: and the meteorological data in the second step uses daily meteorological data freely published in a near national meteorological station, and the meteorological data indexes comprise the lowest temperature and the average humidity.

As a still further scheme of the invention: the area forecast conceptual model in the step three is P_i＝f(X₁；X₂) (ii) a Wherein: x₁、X₂Respectively, the monthly minimum temperature and the monthly average humidity.

As a still further scheme of the invention: the area forecast analysis model in the fourth step is P_i＝a₀+a₁*X₁+a₂*X₂Wherein a is₀～a₂Model parameters obtained for statistical methods.

Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:

the litchi major and minor year area forecasting model based on meteorological conditions is established based on litchi major and minor year type monitoring results of more than 10 continuous years in the past in a region and meteorological data of a nearby meteorological station, is simple and practical, has easily obtained parameters and high forecasting precision, can represent the major and minor year conditions of a litchi producing area covered by the meteorological station, can perform semi-quantitative and quantitative forecasting in a certain period of time after the model is established, and can invert the historical major and minor year conditions. The important significance of the model is as follows: (a) if the model can not obtain the obvious correlation between the litchi year and the soil nutrient supply, the meteorological conditions are the main factors influencing the litchi yield year and year; (b) measures are actively taken under the adverse meteorological year type to avoid the flowering phase and the like meeting the adverse meteorological conditions, for example, a plant growth regulator is adopted in warm winter to control early flowering, a rain-proof shed is built to control precipitation and the like; meanwhile, the method can avoid the occurrence of the young or the younger year by adjusting the field microclimate.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a construction method of a litchi major and minor region forecasting model based on meteorological conditions.

Detailed Description

The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

Referring to fig. 1, in an embodiment of the present invention, a method for constructing a litchi major and minor region forecasting model based on meteorological conditions includes the following operation steps:

the method comprises the following steps: preparing the data of the year and year of the litchi;

step two: preparing meteorological data;

step three: constructing a region forecast conceptual model;

step four: and (5) analyzing the regional forecast analysis model.

The litchi yield year-year data in the step one are obtained by monitoring by a model user or obtained from related national departments, and the data are monitoring data of more than 1000 mu litchi orchard in the same area for more than 10 continuous years. The major, minor, average, minor and minor years were rated 5, and assigned numerical values of 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1, respectively, as determined by relevant department surveys and data analysis.

The weather data in the second step uses daily weather data freely published about the near-country weather stations, the weather stations are generally all provided within 100 kilometers, one weather station covers 3-4 counties on average, and historical weather data can be traced back to dozens of years; the meteorological data indexes comprise minimum temperature and average humidity.

The area forecast conceptual model in the step three is P_i＝f(X₁；X₂) (ii) a Wherein: x₁、X₂The minimum monthly temperature and the average monthly humidity respectively obtain a correlation coefficient r of 0.989^**The percent of pass (error less than +/-1) is 100 percent.

The area forecast analysis model in the fourth step is P_i＝a₀+a₁*X₁+a₂*X₂Wherein a is₀～a₂Model parameters obtained for statistical methods.

Example (b):

the method comprises the following steps: preparing the data of the year and year of the litchi;

according to investigation and data analysis of relevant departments, determining the year type of the yield of 1990-2019 Guangxi Lingshan litchis in the major and minor years, and respectively assigning 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 values to 5 grades of major, minor, horizontal, minor and minor years;

step two: preparing meteorological data;

the meteorological data of Guangxi Lingshan in 1990-2019 are from national weather stations, and include the daily minimum temperature and average humidity.

Step three: a regional forecast conceptual model;

the area forecast conceptual model is P_i＝f(X₁；X₂)；X₁、X₂Respectively 12 months minimum temperature and 12 months average humidity of Guangxi Lingshan.

Step four: a regional forecast analysis model;

the regional forecast analytic model is P_i＝a₀+a₁*X₁+a₂*X₂Wherein a is₀～a₂Model parameters, X, obtained for statistical methods₁、X₂Respectively 12 months minimum temperature and 12 months average humidity of Guangxi Lingshan.

The concrete forecasting model is as follows:

the model for forecasting the current litchi year and year in Guangxi Lingshan is as follows: p_i＝15.6839-0.5081*X₁+0.0939*X₂，r＝0.989^**Where n is 29 and the yield is 100%, the forecast yield is defined as: compared with the actual year type in the current year, the result of the prediction error within +/-1 year type is qualified.

The weather conditions for the year are as follows: (1) average minimum temperature of < 10.0 ℃ over 12 months; (2) average humidity of < 70.0% in 12 months.

Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes in the embodiments and/or modifications of the invention can be made, and equivalents and modifications of some features of the invention can be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.